Although the market is worried that the epidemic will affect the market in the first quarter of this year, the industry believes that the price rise of memory is still expected.
Jibang technology, a consultancy, pointed out that although the current epidemic is serious, DRAM and NAND flash memory plants in China have no production line shutdown, and the production will not be affected in the short term. In addition, the first quarter contract price has been agreed, so it is expected that DRAM and NAND flash contract price will only rise slightly in the first quarter.
However, in terms of plant strongholds, the three DRAM plants, only SK Hynix's Wuxi plant may be affected, and it is far away from Wuhan, so the impact should not be serious. At present, the workers are working normally, the production line is still in continuous operation, and there is no doubt about shutdown. The main observation focuses on whether the logistics system is blocked due to closure, resulting in the production line suspension. However, some important manufacturers have been issued special permits by the government, so the impact of the industry should be limited.
At present, it has been announced that non first-line personnel can work at home, while factory personnel will arrange shifts and strictly control the access of personnel. It will be more seriously affected by the closure of the city, and there are worries about the resumption of workers. Although its market share is not high, if the expansion plan is blocked this year, it will support the growth of memory. But manufacturers are also expected to get support from the Chinese government, not too pessimistic.
At present, the market thinks that the memory industry will recover this year, and NAND will rebound faster than DRAM. In the recent Samsung financial report meeting, it was also mentioned that NAND is expected to grow by more than 20% this year, and DRAM is likely to rebound by nearly 10%. Meguiar had a similar view before, and WD is more optimistic that NAND is very popular, with a price increase of 35%.
The performance of DRAM is not so strong, but at present, it is still a question whether this trend can last for long. If the demand is really weak in the first quarter of this year, then it may also be affected in the second half of this year.